India reported 25,072 new COVID-19 cases in 24 hours Monday morning (File)
New Delhi:
There is no direct evidence to suggest that a third wave of COVID-19 will affect children more than adults, the National Institute of Disaster Management has said in a report that the Indian Academy of Pediatrics and the Lancet COVID-19 Commission’s Regional (India) Task quotes. Power.
However, the report also says there is “cause for concern, if not panic”, as children in India remain unvaccinated and existing pediatric facilities “are not robust enough to treat on a large scale”.
The issue of childhood vaccines was at least partially resolved when the national drug regulatory agency last week approved Zydus Cadila’s three-dose RNA vaccine for children over the age of 12. A second vaccine – Covaxin from Bharat Biotech – is expected to be approved in September.
The issue of adequate pediatric care facilities is also being addressed, the NIDM said in its report, with the center instructing all hospitals to allocate 20 percent of available beds for children.
Several states have also started building new pediatric facilities and stockpiling drugs and oxygen — the latter with memories of the second wave crisis that are still painfully fresh.
Linked to concerns about a possible third wave and its impact on children is the issue of schools reopening. The NIDM report referred to a microdistrict strategy proposed by the World Health Organization to ensure schools can reopen with minimal risk of virus transmission.
The report also outlines a range of child safety measures – including awareness campaigns so that they can be familiar with Covid protocols, programs to ensure that children in rural areas and from disadvantaged communities are protected, and, crucially, recognition that “‘children’ ‘Not a homogeneous group and policies cannot be the same for different groups of children”.
The NIDM report also discusses general preparedness to deal with a third wave of COVID-19 cases; it referred to a slowdown in the decline of new cases and a rise in the ‘R’ factor, or rate of reproduction of the virus, as a warning sign, saying, “This indicates a third wave is on the way.”
Earlier this month, the center said the ‘R’ value had risen above the danger line of 1.0; the last time it was above this level was in March when it was 1.32 which was before the second wave.
It has since fallen – but only marginally, to 0.94 as of Monday morning.
Concerns have been raised about a third wave in recent weeks, especially with potentially more virulent variants of the virus in circulation – such as the ‘delta plus’.
Concerns have also been raised about the easing of restrictions and lockdown rules as the center and state governments push for economic and commercial activity to restart.
A mathematical model from IIT Kanpur suggests three likely third wave scenarios, based on the unlock level. These range from more than two lakh cases per day to five lakh per day.
The key point is that all three scenarios predict a third wave between September and October.
To that end, the report highlights the continued acceptance of Covid-appropriate behavior by the public and a deliberate gradual easing of restrictions.
In terms of general preparedness, the NIDM report also emphasized that future waves could be “significantly challenged” by increasing the pace of vaccinations. At the current vaccination rate, India will fall far short of its target of vaccinating 34 percent of the population by the end of the year.
The report also highlights the need for campaigns to overcome both reluctance (reluctance to get vaccinated) and apathy (believing it is not necessary because the pandemic is over).
With emergency use approvals for Zydus Cadila and Johnson & Johnson, India now has seven Covid vaccines, although availability across the board is still an issue, some of which are not yet readily available.
