OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is considering dissolving parliament, perhaps as early as Sunday, to put Canada on the path to elections in late September. Such a move was widely expected and would show his confidence that voters will put him in power after three consecutive campaigns.
If declared, the election would take place less than two years after the previous vote and at a time when coronavirus cases are on the rise in many parts of the country, leading health officials to declare a fourth wave is underway. Mr Trudeau could have waited until 2024 to call elections.
Officials in the government of Mr Trudeau and his Liberal party have been told to prepare for the Prime Minister’s request to call for the dissolution of Governor General Mary Simon, Queen Elizabeth’s representative as head of state, on Sunday. Their understanding is that the vote will be held on September 20, after the legal minimum period for campaigning.
The final decision on the timing rests with Mr Trudeau, and on Friday it was not clear whether it had been made. Mr Trudeau’s office declined to comment.
For several weeks now, Mr Trudeau, prominent members of his cabinet and the leaders of the main opposition parties across the country have been making campaign-style appearances. In recent months, several politicians have announced their retirement, also signaling that a vote is imminent.
Mr Trudeau appears to be betting that the generally well-received government measures, particularly in the areas of financial support to Canadians and Canadian companies and the procurement of vaccines, will put his government back to work with a majority in the House of Commons. His Liberal party won the most seats in the 2019 elections, 157, but failed to secure a majority in the House with 338 seats, forcing him to rely on the support of opposition parties to pass legislation.
Polls show Liberals have enough support to return to power, but not necessarily with a majority. Mr. Trudeau may be hoping that his well-known campaigning skills and celebrity image can still change that.
Erin O’Toole, the leader of the Conservative Party, the largest opposition group, has struggled to attract attention and gain support during his first year in that role.
Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, said waiting for the ballot box also carries risks for Trudeau.
“Canada is great at controlling the spread of Covid-19,” she said. “We didn’t see the kind of crisis situation that developed in other places like the US”
“Trudeau wants to break the Liberal’s record in this election,” she said. “But if you let too much time pass, voters forget what you’ve done for them.”
