As tensions rise between their countries, President Biden and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, have repeatedly reversed comparisons to the Cold War.
But efforts to restore relations may run into a problem: public opinion. Opinion polls show striking similarities between the hostility, pessimism and militarism in Americans’ view of the Soviet Union in the run-up to the Cold War in the late 1940s and how they view China today . While parallels remain limited and contexts differ, this could complicate efforts to avert a Cold War-like clash.
The parallels
In both cases, American views of the Soviet Union and China quickly deteriorated from a fairly positive position.
The US and the Soviets were allies during World War II, and most Americans agreed with the way they worked together for much of 1945, according to opinion polls archived at the Roper Center. But when the war ended and the Soviets swallowed up parts of Eastern Europe, those views changed. In 1946, three quarters of Americans disapproved of Soviet foreign policy.
American views on China have similarly collapsed. Between about 2000 and 2016, comparable stocks rated the country positively and negatively. That changed in 2018, when former President Donald J. Trump’s anti-China language and trade war turned the opinions of many Americans sharply negative. The pandemic, China’s mass detentions of Muslims and partnership with Russia, Biden’s talk of US-China “competition” and the Chinese spy balloon incident have since driven US perception of China to an all-time low.
In both cases, distrust grew as public opinion soured. When World War II ended in 1945, most Americans believed that the Soviet Union “could be trusted to work with us.” A year later, most felt “less friendly” towards the Soviets. Today, most Americans call China unfriendly or hostile.
“What’s really happening is alienation,” said Robert Daly, who directs the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson Center. “It’s that alienation that has more than a cold war flavor, it’s a hallmark of a cold war.”
In 1948, when the Soviets blockaded West Berlin, most Americans believed the US should keep its troops there, even if they risked war. Today, most prioritize preventing an invasion of Taiwan over maintaining good relations with China, sending weapons if China invades, and using the US Navy to thwart a blockade. In 1949, nearly half of Americans thought it was “only a matter of time” before the US went to war with the Soviets. Today, two-thirds view China’s military might as a “critical threat” to the US over the next decade.
Of course, the two cases are not identical. Most Americans are in favor of cutting trade ties with China, but the two countries are more intertwined economically than the US and the Soviets ever were. In the 1940s, most Americans supported sending troops to defend European countries against Soviet takeover; most do not yet support sending troops to Taiwan. Americans are still more concerned about terrorism and other foreign policy issues than they are about China. And for now, far more are saying that the US and China are “competing” – the preferred framing of the Biden administration – than that they are engaged in a cold war.
Yet the message Americans are getting from their leaders about China is very negative. “That’s getting through to the general public,” said Richard Herrmann, an Ohio State University professor who studies international relations and public opinion.
A feedback loop
Souring public opinion may, in turn, worsen US-China relations.
That may seem surprising; most Americans don’t pay much attention to foreign policy, which is typically far removed from their daily lives. But the international issues that do come up tend to be topics that politicians, pundits and the news media talk about a lot. And once public opinion on a foreign policy issue calcifies, as is increasingly the case with China, political leaders often pay attention to it. “It generally provides guardrails for what policymakers can do,” says Dina Smeltz of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, which polls Americans’ views on China.
Public hostility can drive leaders to speak and act aggressively, an aggressive attitude that journalists then communicate to the public. The result is a feedback loop in which events, words and actions of leaders, media coverage and public opinion reinforce each other.
That feedback loop can become especially powerful when public sentiment crosses party lines, as it did during much of the Cold War and, increasingly, with China (even though self-proclaimed Republicans remain more hostile to China than Democrats and independents). “Taking a tough stance on China is one of the few issues on which Republicans and Democrats in Washington seem to agree,” Joshua Kertzer, a Harvard political scientist, said in an email.
In this way, the decisions of political leaders can both influence and influence public opinion. The early Cold War was an example of the dynamic. President Harry Truman’s 1947 declaration of American support for countries resisting “totalitarian regimes”, dubbed the Truman Doctrine, drew on and deepened anti-Soviet animus. John F. Kennedy closely monitored polls on how other countries viewed the US-Soviet balance of military power, which led him to resume atmospheric nuclear testing and speed up the US space program. Kennedy’s successor, Lyndon Johnson, poured troops into Vietnam, in part because he feared political backlash if the Communists overran it.
Mr Biden recently predicted a “thaw” in US-China relations, but last week he called Mr Xi a dictator and stuck to it, harassing China. When Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing this month to lower the temperature, the Republicans shot at him. Mr Biden’s GOP challengers are already calling him soft on China ahead of the 2024 election. “The public climate is putting a ceiling on what the expected thaw could lead to,” said Jessica Chen Weiss, a Cornell political scientist. .
Public opinion may already be getting in the way of Mr Biden’s strategy. While advising the State Department from 2021 to 2022, Ms Weiss advocated a “framework for peaceful coexistence” – deterring rather than provoking China. But, she said, senior government officials were skeptical that Americans would support anything less than “compete responsibly,” a catchphrase officials use to describe the current approach. “That’s an example of, I think, the indirect influence that the public climate — the discourse, not just the polls — has,” she said. (The White House has not commented on her assessment.)
Chinese public opinion – which has also become negative and aggressive towards the US under Mr Xi – may also stand in the way of de-escalation. Academic research suggests that public opinion can steer leaders’ decision-making, even in countries where politicians are not democratically elected. “There is a public outcry for leaders to do something,” Mr Kertzer said. “And then you end up in a situation where escalation on one side leads to escalation on the other side.”
‘We are already there’
Does this mean that the US and China are destined to struggle for decades Cold War style? Not necessary. Still, frosty relationships can become self-fulfilling. A Cold War mindset in both countries could make escalation over Taiwan more likely. “Public opinion data right now suggests that if China invaded Taiwan, there would be strong reactions in the US,” Kertzer said. It could also harm U.S. allies and companies dependent on China’s economy, ending cooperation and diplomacy. And the anti-Chinese sentiment seems to have led to an increase in attacks against Asian Americans.
Others think a Cold War framework could help keep tensions from running high. “We are already involved in a global competition with China,” said Mr. Daly. “I am not advocating or predicting a cold war. I say descriptively that we are already there.” Admittedly, he added, “can inspire peacemakers as much as hawks.”
But if diplomatic friction and mutual suspicion persist, discussions of terminology may no longer matter. “The view at the macro level is that we’re really in some serious competition,” said Mr. Hermann. “Now the public has followed suit. And it’s not like you can turn this ship around overnight.”
