Opinion: Unity of the opposition is overrated. Here’s the math

The celebration of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin’s 70th birthday turned into a show of “opposition unity” with leaders of Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Samajwadi Party and National Conference speaking from a single platform in Chennai spoke. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), BRS and Trinamool Congress, all nurturing national aspirations, skipped the bash.

While Stalin tried to provide a platform for like-minded opposition parties to come together, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge executed a strategic backslide. Days after declaring in Congress plenary that the big old party will lead an opposition alliance, Mallikarjun Kharge said who will be the prime ministerial candidate “is not the question”, indicating that unity is paramount. Good move.

Talks about opposition unity usually start about a year before each election. In 2019, the parties established the “one-on-one contest” strategy, with the Congress or a regional party best suited to fight the BJP taking the lead in each state.

Nearly 100 percent unity of the opposition was achieved in the 1977 elections when many parties merged to form the Janata Party, which allied with the left parties and some regional forces to defeat the Congress.

The premise of alliance talks is that when two parties join forces, the synergies should result in a greater vote share than their combined strength. But normally such an alliance leads to some dissatisfaction among voters on both sides, hindering seamless transfer of votes and creating leaks. The 2019 Mahagathbandhan of the Samajwadi Party, BSP and RLD in Uttar Pradesh is a good example of this.

Research by political scientist Adam Zeigfied shows that while the Index of opposition unity (IOU) rose from 64 percent in the 2014 general election to 85 percent in 2019, the number of seats held by the BJP rose from 282 to 303 seats. The IOU indicator shows the degree of opposition consolidation faced by the dominant party or party in power. It shows that high-level opposition can have a counterproductive effect if not backed by a common minimum program, as voters may see it as an opportunistic alliance.

In the current context, the opposition is already united as much as possible. 100% opposition unity is a myth, a mirage not worth chasing. Let’s see why.

Congress and its allies (UPA) were winners and runners-up in 350 odd seats in 2019, which is almost 65% of Lok Sabha strength. The Congress was No. 1 or No. 2 with 261 seats, and the allies on the other 90. The BJP and its allies were winners and runners-up with about 430 seats in 2019. The number fell as some left the alliance. In about 250 seats, it was a direct clash between UPA and NDA.

The UPA can count on two new allies: Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction). Nitish Kumar has pitched to Congress to take the lead in opposition unity talks, while Uddhav Thackeray is left with few options following his party split.

The opposition parties that matter are fairly united in Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Jammu and Kashmir. That makes 148 seats or 27% of Lok Sabha.

The Congress faced the BJP in 191 head-to-head matches, mainly in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Assam, Delhi, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Delhi and Gujarat. Except in Karnataka, Delhi and Gujarat, regional parties do not have a significant vote share, so opposition unity is not really required. Congress needs to fend for itself.

Opposition unity is not possible in Kerala (20 seats), where the CPM and Congress are in direct combat with the BJP, a distant third. But even if the CPM wins some seats, it is not expected to support the BJP in the center at all costs as it is already allied with the Congress in West Bengal and Tripura. This can be regarded as a friendly battle between opposition parties.

Then we have two states, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, where the dominant forces, BJD and YSRCP, have shown pro-NDA tendencies and a united opposition is not possible. While the BJD was born out of anti-congressism, YSRCP is a congressional splinter group. Congress was reduced to one and zero seats in these two states in 2019 and hardly poses a threat to the BJD or YSRCP.

In Uttar Pradesh, a Mahagatbandhan is no longer possible, now that the BSP and the Samajwadi Party are splitting bitterly. However, the weakening of Mayawati’s BSP gives hope to Akhilesh Yadav. Again, the Congress has a minuscule vote share and is unlikely to seriously damage the Samajwadi’s prospects.

Then we have the three parties with national plans – AAP, Trinamool and K Chandrasekhara Rao’s TRS/BRS. The deterioration of relations between the Trinamool and the Congress, the complementary AAP and Congress voting blockades in Delhi, Punjab and to a lesser extent Gujarat mean that the opposition in West Bengal and Delhi may not be united. In Gujarat, there is a smaller impact of AAP compared to Delhi and Punjab.

In Telangana, the BRS and Congress have historically been adversaries and cannot join forces. In Bengal and Telangana, the power of the Congress has diminished significantly, and the main battle is between Trinamool/BRS and BJP.

At 185 seats in UP (80), Bengal (42), Odisha (21), Telangana (17) and Andhra Pradesh (25), regional parties will hold their own against the BJP. Congress is in no position to seriously influence their prospects. Whoever wins in these states, except Odisha (BJD) and Andhra (YSRCP), is likely to support a non-BJP government in the centre.

The contours of the fight against the BJP and the opposition are already set in a sense. With 185 seats, it is the regional parties that will drive. In some 250 seats, the Congress and its allies will face the BJP. With about 100 seats, the BJP and its allies are not big factors (ranked third or lower), though the party is preparing a strategy to try to win it to offset losses in states where it has peaked.

The opposition should focus on drawing up a common minimum program and presenting a credible alternative vision to the voter rather than chasing 100% unity, which appears to be Mission Impossible.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.