Last updated: January 31, 2023, 8:15 AM IST
According to one source, India’s annual pre-budget economic survey is likely to peg GDP growth at 6-6.8% for 2023-2024.
The government survey is likely to say growth for 2023-2024 is seen at 6.5% below base case, said the individual, who declined to be named because the matter was confidential. This would be the slowest in three years. Nominal growth is likely forecast at 11% for 2023-24, the source added.
Growth in the financial year beginning April 1 will remain strong compared to most global economies, led by continued private consumption, improving bank lending and improved corporate capital spending, the survey likely said, the source said.
An economic survey by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran will be tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday, a day before she presents the budget for the next fiscal year.
The Economic Survey is the government’s overview of the state of the economy in recent years.
India’s economy has recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic, but the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to inflationary pressures and prompted central banks, including India’s, to reverse the ultra-loose monetary policies they have pursued during the pandemic. to twist.
The study is likely to consider inflation above target in India, estimated by the central bank at 6.8% in 2022/23, but is likely to state that the pace of price increases is not high enough to deter private consumption or low enough to dilute investment.
The research is likely to warn that pressure on the Indian rupee could continue as a result of the tightening monetary policy, the source said. India’s current account deficit (CAD) may also remain high as imports could remain high due to a strong local economy, while exports ease due to the weakness of the global economy. The research is likely to warn.
India’s CAD was 4.4% of GDP in the July-September quarter, up from 2.2% a quarter ago and 1.3% a year ago, as rising commodity prices and a weak rupee widened the trade gap.
Even 6.5% growth could keep India one of the fastest growing economies in the world, despite losing pace by an estimated 7% in the fiscal year ending March 31. It has grown 8.7% in the previous year, mainly due to pandemic. related distortions.
The study is likely to point to an improvement in working conditions in India due to stronger consumption, but adds that a further rebound in private investment is essential for job creation. Increased government spending on infrastructure over the past two years should help, the document says.
Unemployment in India had soared during the pandemic.
The government’s economic research department is also likely to point to improving the financial health of India’s banking sector as a factor driving economic growth.
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(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and was published from a syndicated news agency feed)